Après sa mise à l’arrêt pendant le confinement et son redémarrage progressif, l’économie française va mettre du temps à se remettre de la pandémie de Covid-19, prévient la Banque de France, qui anticipe une chute record d’environ 10% du PIB cette année.

« Comme l’ensemble du monde, l’économie française a subi un choc d’une ampleur inédite au premier semestre 2020 » du fait du confinement strict mis en place mi-mars et levé mi-mai, affirme la Banque centrale française dans ses projections macroéconomiques jusqu’en 2022 publiées mardi. La reprise amorcée avec la levée du confinement, et qui se traduira par un rebond de l’économie dès le troisième trimestre, ne suffira pas à éviter une récession inédite de l’économie cette année.

Évaluée à -10%, cette prévision est proche des -11% anticipés par le gouvernement dans le troisième projet de loi de finances rectificative qu’il présentera mercredi en Conseil des ministres. Après cela, « 2021 et 2022 seraient des années de redressement net mais progressif », prédit la Banque de France, avec une croissance de 7% prévue l’an prochain, puis une progression de 4% du PIB en 2022. Mais « ce fort rebond apparent ne permettrait pas de retrouver le niveau d’activité de fin 2019 avant mi-2022 », prévient la banque centrale française, première institution publique à publier des prévisions économiques à cet horizon.

En effet, l’économie française doit redémarrer à partir d’un niveau historiquement désastreux. Après le recul du PIB de 5,3% au premier trimestre, selon l’évaluation de l’Insee, l’économie devrait plonger d’environ 15% au deuxième trimestre, prévoit la Banque de France. Elle est un peu plus optimiste que l’Institut national des statistiques (Insee) qui table sur une chute de 20%.

– chômage historique mi-2021 –

Car, selon la banque centrale, l’activité a rebondi au mois de mai, et le mois de juin devrait confirmer cette tendance. Déjà, les fermetures de sites dans l’industrie « sont devenues marginales” et le bâtiment reprend “de façon très dynamique ». La situation est plus contrastée dans les services, avec des secteurs toujours en difficulté, comme l’hébergement ou la restauration encore en partie confinés, et d’autres qui ont nettement rebondi, comme les services à la personne, le travail temporaire ou les services automobiles. Mais le facteur “essentiel” de la reprise sera le rythme du rebond de la consommation des ménages. Or, avec une épargne cumulée autour de 100 milliards d’euros, le taux d’épargne des ménages dépassera les 22% cette année et la consommation reculera de 9,3%.

Si le dispositif massif de chômage partiel mis en place par le gouvernement va quelque peu amortir l’impact de la crise sur l’emploi et le pouvoir d’achat cette année, le taux de chômage devrait atteindre plus de 10% fin 2020, et grimper jusqu’à un pic supérieur à 11,5% à la mi-2021, un niveau “au-dessus des précédents historiques“, projette la Banque de France. Et, là encore, il faudra attendre 2022 pour le voir redescendre à 9,7%. Le pouvoir d’achat devrait lui légèrement reculer de 0,5% cette année, avant de repartir à la hausse mais à un rythme bien plus faible que l’activité. L’ensemble de ce scénario de reprise repose sur une circulation du Covid-19 persistante mais sous contrôle et une économie qui s’adapte aux contraintes sanitaires. Et il ne tient pas compte des futures mesures de relance que le gouvernement devrait prendre, à la fois dans son nouveau budget rectifié et dans le plan de relance annoncé pour la rentrée.

Cette reprise pourrait aussi être plus rapide si une solution médicale pérenne arrivait mi-2021, note la Banque de France. Ou à l’inverse beaucoup plus lente si l’épidémie reprenait de la vigueur et imposait de nouveau des mesures de confinement, prévient-elle.

Source France 24: https://www.france24.com/fr/20200609-l-%C3%A9conomie-fran%C3%A7aise-devrait-mettre-au-moins-deux-ans-%C3%A0-se-relever-de-la-pand%C3%A9mie-1

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